Mental models of the sixth mass extinction reveal pathways for transformative sustainability action

Abstract

To address fundamental challenges to global sustainability posed by unprecedented biodiversity loss and the sixth mass extinction (SME), scientists advocate for transformative changes to systems, policies, and behaviours. Yet public understanding of the biodiversity crisis remains largely unexplored. This article presents the first comprehensive examination of public mental models regarding support for transformative changes using a nationally representative UK survey (n = 739). Whilst only 28% of respondents had heard of the "sixth mass extinction," 93% accepted the phenomenon once explained, with 95% attributing it to human activities. Principal component analysis revealed distinct mental models for policy support (conservation, market regulation, lifestyle changes, and big technology) and behavioural change (citizenship, consumer actions, waste reduction, and nuclear energy use). Attribution to direct human causes strongly predicted support for transformative change (β = 0.44, p < 0.001), while attributions to distant and non-human causes reduced support (β = - 0.20, p < 0.001). These findings demonstrate high latent public support for sustainability transformations and provide actionable insights for science communication and policy engagement strategies addressing the biodiversity crisis.