Brexit: a critical audit in the cold light of day

Abstract

Brexit has been a decade-long process rather than discrete events, and has had enduring effects on the UK economy and society, as well as affecting former partners in the EU. While there is a broad consensus that the macroeconomic impact has been damaging to both sides, the incidence of Brexit on households, social groups and different economic sectors has been uneven. Overall, it has affected the UK more than the EU: an extensive study by Germany’s IFO Institut projected that the negative economic impact on the UK would be five times greater than on Germany, and minimal for Austria and Slovenia. This paper distinguishes between three broad categories of consequences of Brexit: economic, social and governance related. It starts with an overview of what was expected from Brexit, contrasting the ‘project fear’ narrative of the remain campaign with the promises of the leave campaigns about opportunities for re-orientating the UK economy towards more dynamic partner countries, curbing inflows of migrants and enabling better regulation.