The politics of pledges: peer pressure, domestic politics and climate ambition under the Paris Agreement

Although the Paris Agreement affords states considerable flexibility in their contributions to global efforts to tackle climate change, its mandate that they submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) imposes the expectation that their climate pledges will become more ambitious over time. One option for ensuring that states adhere to this expectation is for those of their peers which have submitted their pledges early, and which have shown increased ambition levels – such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States – to apply pressure on other states to make progressively more ambitious climate pledges, facilitating the “ratchet mechanism” of the Paris Agreement. The year 2021 was a watershed for climate diplomacy – the United States resumed its global climate leadership role, and states were due to strengthen their climate pledges at the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow. This thesis explores how, and under what conditions peer pressure has worked to enhance national climate ambitions. It undertakes a within- and cross-case analysis of Australia and Canada, focusing on their decisions regarding emissions reduction targets in 2021. Analyzing data from 76 semi-structured interviews with government officials, politicians, scholars, researchers, journalists, and representatives from civil society, business, and industry groups in Australia and Canada, it finds that peer pressure played a critical role in the 2021 national climate commitments of these two countries, though the extent to which it led them to increase near-term emissions reduction targets differed. Under Justin Trudeau’s premiership, the Canadian government – who was eager to take on a leadership role in climate policy – would have shifted Canada’s 2030 emissions reduction target even without pressure from its peers; however, this thesis shows that peer pressure led Canada to identify and pledge the most ambitious possible target rather than simply determine whether to increase its target per se. Meanwhile, although peer pressure had limited success in increasing the ambition of Australia’s 2030 target, it led the Australian government under Scott Morrison’s premiership – who continued to resist a more ambitious 2030 target – to reconsider its position regarding a net zero 2050 target in the lead up to COP26. While the net zero target is typically perceived as an aspirational goal relative to near-term targets, this thesis finds that the Morrison government’s net zero target pledge had significant domestic political costs because of opposition to this target from the National Party, an important partner in Morrison’s governing coalition. These case studies also demonstrate that Australia’s and Canada’s economic and strategic relationships with their peers, as well as the perceived costs of (not) responding to peer pressure at home have played key roles in determining the extent to which these countries enhance their national climate ambitions.