Are U.S. export controls an effective policy for innovation?

Who bears the predominant cost of U.S. semiconductor export controls? Using CPI and import price data, and a difference-in-differences design, I conclude that it is the U.S. government. I find that export controls decreased the price paid by customers for semiconductor-based electronics yet increased the import price of semiconductors. I adapt theoretical frameworks by Mazzucato and Atkinson & Ezell to evaluate how policymakers can shape innovation markets through positive and negative measures. I evaluate export controls as an innovation policy and their effect on domestic and foreign innovation processes. My findings suggest that there should be greater consideration of foreign policy reactions in shaping innovation policy.