Expected impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area on food security

This chapter estimates the potential impact of the AfCFTA on the agriculture sector by means of a detailed partial equilibrium model using recently available tariff schedules for African countries. The impact is forecast to be relatively small over the short-run timespan that is covered by the modelling approach. Intra-African trade in the sector as a whole is expected to increase by 5.4 per cent, equivalent to $1,015 million annually, in a scenario of full tariff liberalisation under the AfCFTA. These results are modest, but consistent across all tests of the model to parameter sensitivity analyses, and reflect a scenario in which all trade is liberalised, without recourse to product exclusions (in reality some of this trade may be excluded from liberalisation and the impact of the AfCFTA may be limited further).