Implied dividend volatility and expected growth

We study the behavior of implied dividend volatility, constructed from the prices of options on index-level dividends, during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use these data to construct a lower bound on expected excess returns on dividend claims and find that the bound moves significantly over time. However, most of the variation in dividend futures prices reflects changes in growth expectations rather than expected excess returns, making them valuable assets to uncover growth expectations. We conclude that the short-term economic outlook is uncertain and not expected to recover in the near term.