How does fiscal policy affect the transmission of monetary policy into cross-border bank lending? Cross-country evidence

Pradhan, Swapan-Kumar; Takáts, Előd; and Temesvary, Judit (2024) How does fiscal policy affect the transmission of monetary policy into cross-border bank lending? Cross-country evidence. [Working paper]
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We use a rarely accessed BIS database on bilateral cross-border bank claims by bank nationality to examine the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies. We find significant interactions: the transmission of the monetary policies of major currency issuers is significantly influenced by the fiscal stance of source (home) lending banking systems. Fiscal consolidation in a source country amplifies the effect of currency issuers' monetary policy on lending. For instance, a reduction in the German debt-to-GDP ratio amplifies the negative impact of US monetary policy tightening on USD-denominated cross-border bank lending outflows from German banks. The interaction effects are the strongest for US monetary policy.

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