Understanding the dynamics of state responses to security threats in the Sahel

What explains variations in Sahelian states’ responses to jihadist threats? Observing that subnational groups relate differently to the state, we suggest that historically excluded groups are more likely to develop grievances and to support jihadists if they operate in their region. The more violence in these regions, the less likely the state is to mount a forceful response and the more likely it is to delegate it to non-state actors. In making our argument, we build upon and further contribute to the theory of social contracts in Africa, focusing on the roots and consequences of political inclusion and exclusion.