Small states navigating shelters and political shocks: the republic of Cyprus between EU sanctions and multivector foreign policy

This paper explores the geopolitical implications of EU sanctions on Russia for the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), employing small-state shelter theory and foreign policy analysis. It investigates whether these sanctions entrapped the RoC within its EU shelter or facilitated a Western-oriented emancipation. The study examines Cyprus's unique relationship with Russia, underpinned by economic, historical, and political ties, and its recent multivector foreign policy shift towards the US and the EU. Utilising a sample of 35 elite interviews and a public opinion survey of 505 participants, the paper highlights the political shock induced by the Ukraine war and subsequent sanctions, which strained Cyprus's multivector approach and its relations with Russia. The findings reveal a significant rift between elite and public perceptions: elites broadly support the EU sanctions and view them as a pivot towards the West, while the public disapproves of the sanctions, favouring a dual-track foreign policy. This divergence could potentially pose challenges to domestic unity and consensual politics. The study contributes to small state literature by proposing that shelters can be sources of political shocks and offers insights into Cypriot foreign policy dynamics, providing valuable perspectives for researchers and policymakers in Cyprus and the EU.