Russia’s backyard: China and Central Asia after the invasion of Ukraine

This chapter explores the complex geopolitical transformations occurring in Central Asia against the backdrop of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. It critically assesses Moscow’s declining influence juxtaposed with the growing clout of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the region. The intricate balancing act of Central Asian states is examined through the concept of multi-vectorism, a strategy used by these nations to diversify foreign alliances and resist domination by any single power. The key argument is that the crisis in Ukraine presents a unique window for Beijing to reinforce its position in Central Asia, a claim supported by the region’s reticence to endorse Russia’s intervention and its progressive alignment with the Chinese leadership. The broader implications of these power shifts on the global stage, including potential challenges to the US and its allies, are also scrutinized. The chapter is structured to provide an overview of China’s evolving relations with Central Asia post-1991, a detailed appraisal of each Central Asian republic’s ties with the PRC, an exploration of the consequent US national security and foreign policy challenges, and concludes with strategic recommendations for the US and its allies in navigating this shifting geopolitical landscape.