Enhancing heatwave resilience in the UK:insights and strategies from stakeholders

Heatwave events are on the rise in the UK and Europe, with projections indicating increased frequency, intensity, and persistence. Despite the escalating risk, responses and adaptation strategies are lagging behind, exacerbated by a lack of comprehensive understanding of heat-related risks and effective measures. This paper addresses this gap by employing a structured approach combining Forensic Disaster Analysis with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) to analyse the UK's response to the heatwaves of summer 2022 that claimed 3,000 lives. 38 stakeholders from various sectors involved in the response to these heatwaves were interviewed, and their cognitive maps were developed to capture local knowledge and perceptions regarding the causes, impacts, and actions taken before, during, and after the heatwaves. Through FCM analysis, cascading effects of heatwaves and factors amplifying negative impacts are identified, along with effective and missed mitigating measures. Moreover, the study compares heat risk perceptions among different stakeholder groups, highlighting important variations in perspectives, preferences, and priorities with implications for heat adaptation policy design. The findings contribute to enhancing understanding of heatwave risks and the actions that must be taken in preparation for future heatwaves in the UK, informing more robust and holistic policymaking for heat risk reduction.