Identity, industry, and perceptions of climate futures

Climate change and decarbonization will impose costs on a range of industries, but in ways that are difficult to predict. I argue that the racial makeup of an industry serves as a heuristic by which communities evaluate its viability in contexts of deep uncertainty. In surveys of diverse samples of the US public, I randomize the racial compositions of hypothetical industry workforces. I find that individuals are more pessimistic about industries that draw workers from marginalized racial groups, expecting those industries to be denied government support as climate-related stressors manifest. Individuals are more confident in industries tied to privileged groups, believing politicians will more readily come to their aid when called upon. These findings illustrate how racial divisions shape mass climate politics and suggest that group hierarchies serve as a touchstone for evaluating economic risk in uncertain settings.