An analysis of changing Israeli and Palestinian attitudes towards peace

A unique time series dataset is interrogated to show that among both Israelis and Palestinians support for peace negotiations was the majority view between 2000 and 2016, with an average of 73% and 65% support respectively. Yet since then, support is waning and in both populations the belief that a lasting peace would arise from peace negotiations is much lower at 35%. Distinct cohort effects exist with the 1990s birth cohort in Palestine (Israel) having up to 15% (15%) lower support for peace negotiations and 20% (10%) lower belief that they will lead to lasting peace, compared to the 1980s cohort at the same age. While we cannot claim causality, the 90s cohort effect is associated with their unique experience of violence and political turmoil in their younger years (the Second Intifada, two Gaza wars, the Lebanon war, the breakdown of negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh), in line with empirical literature on the persistent effect of violence experienced as a young person on attitudes, beliefs and behaviour as an adult. Younger cohorts’ experiences will be an important determinant of overall support for peace in the future and the prospects for peace in the region.