A theory of falling growth and rising rents

Aghion, P.ORCID logo, Bergeaud, A., Boppart, T., Klenow, P. J. & Li, H. (2023). A theory of falling growth and rising rents. Review of Economic Studies, 90(6), 2675 - 2702. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad016
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Growth has fallen in the U.S. amid a rise in firm concentration. Market share has shifted to low labour share firms, while within-firm labour shares have actually risen. We propose a theory linking these trends in which the driving force is falling overhead costs of spanning multiple products or a rising efficiency advantage of large firms. In response, the most efficient firms (with higher markups) spread into new product lines, thereby increasing concentration and generating a temporary burst of growth. Eventually, due to greater competition from efficient firms, within-firm markups and incentives to innovate fall. Thus our simple model can generate qualitative patterns in line with the observed trends.

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