After Merkel:Germany from peace to war

In the autumn of 2021, after Angela Merkel retired, her successor, Olaf Scholz, assumed power as head of a new coalition consisting of Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats. Scholz had an ambitious agenda to reform Germany. Yet, within months, Russia launched its brutal military invasion of Ukraine. Overnight Scholz had to adapt to a Europe at war, which raised profound questions about Germany’s international role. Was its post-1945 ‘civilian power status’ still viable? What about its deep-seated ‘culture of restraint’? On 27 February 2022, three days into the war, Scholz addressed the Bundestag, boldly announcing a German Zeitenwende, an ‘epochal turn’ in the Federal Republic’s conduct of foreign and security affairs. This essay evaluates Scholz’s grand rhetorical vision a year on, questioning how much his claims for a major German foreign-policy revolution have yielded in practice. It will reveal that although Chancellor Scholz hoped to be seen as a decisive leader, his actions have so far been those of a beleaguered temporizer, unable to shake the age-old constraints tied to history, geography, and party politics. Crucially, his innate caution (reflected in long bouts of silences), his stubbornness, his unwillingness to lead from the front, as well as the structural limitations that Germany has long faced, have acted as breaks. Although the biggest tests are still to come, 2022 was a year of forced reinvention for both Scholz and Germany, and neither looked comfortable in assuming their new role.