The past and future of work: how history can inform the age of automation

Debates about the future of work frequently reference past instances of transformative innovation to explain how automation and artificial intelligence could reshape society and the economy. However, historians have rarely engaged with these discussions, and most economists and technologists have limited knowledge of past experiences of technological change. In this paper we show that a deeper understanding of history can expand our understanding of possibilities and pitfalls for employment in the future. We open by demonstrating that evidence from historical events has been used to inform responses to present-day challenges. We argue that history provides the only way to analyze the long-term impacts of technological change, and that the scale of the First Industrial Revolution may make it the only precedent for emerging transformations. Next, we present an overview of the current debates around the potential effects of impending labour replacing innovation. We then summarize existing historical research on the causes and consequences of technological change and identify areas in which salient historical findings are overlooked. We close by proposing further research into past technological shocks that can enhance our vision of an automated future.