Estimating the number of people living with dementia at different stages of the condition in India:a Delphi process

Introduction: Numerous studies have previously estimated the dementia prevalence in India. However, as these estimates use different methodologies and sampling strategies, generating definitive prevalence estimates can be difficult. Methods: A Delphi process involving eight clinical and academic experts provided prevalence estimates of dementia within India, split by sex and age. The experts were also asked to estimate the number of people potentially living at different stages of the condition. A priori criteria were used to ascertain the point in which consensus was achieved. Results: Our consensus estimates generated a dementia prevalence of 2.8% (95% CI = 1.9 to 3.6) for those aged 60 years and above in India. Consensus was achieved across age and sex prevalence estimates, with the exception of one (females aged 60-64). Our experts estimated that 42.9% of people living with dementia in India had a mild severity. Conclusions: The findings indicate that there could be approximately 3.9 million people living with dementia in India, of which 1.7 million could be living with dementia of mild severity. Such estimates can better help researchers and policy makers to estimate the true cost and impact of dementia in India and can inform resource allocation decisions.