Reversal of fortune for political incumbents after oil shocks

This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election dataset for 207 elections across 50 democracies, we show that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents. We verify that these shocks-which reduce consumption growth-are associated with worsening performance for incumbents in the run-up to reelection and a reversal in the leaning of the political party in power post-election.