Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation
Reis, R.
(2023).
Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation.
AEA Papers and Proceedings,
113, 47 - 51.
https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231033
(2023).
Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation.
AEA Papers and Proceedings,
113, 47 - 51.
https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231033
With the profusion of measures of expected inflation (from market prices and from surveys of households, firms, and professionals) it is a mistake to focus on a single one while ignoring the others. This paper discusses four common arguments for a single focus, and finds each of them to be lacking. In the process, it isolates characteristics of different measures that models that combine them should take into account.