Export diversification and economic growth in Kuwait: evidence from time series and field survey analyses

This study examines whether export diversification can foster sustained economic growth in Kuwait, using time series analysis for the period 1980–2019 and a field survey of one hundred Kuwait business leaders engaged in import and export of goods and services. The time series analysis reveals that there is no causality between export diversification and economic growth in the short-run. However, an indirect causality runs from export diversification to economic growth, and vice versa, via imports. In the long-run, no causality runs from export diversification to economic growth, but economic growth does cause export diversification. The field survey results indicate that there is a consensus among Kuwaiti CEOs that there are positive spillover effects from exports and imports to producers of local goods and services, and that imports are conductive to economic diversification.