For many 2020 presidential election voters, economic concerns about COVID-19 restrictions trumped public health

Since Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential election, many commentators have attributed his election loss to his poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. In new research, Carlos Algara, Sharif Amlani, Sam Collitt, Isaac Hale, and Sara Kazemian find that this is not the whole story. Comparing changes in Trump’s vote share with COVID-19 mortality rates, they find that Trump performed better in places more badly affected by the pandemic. They argue that Trump’s election-campaign messaging about the negative economic impact of lockdowns and other pandemic-related restrictions likely drove the increased voter support for him in the worst affected areas.