How accurate are the polls when forecasting election outcomes well into the future?

Whiteley, P. (12 July 2022) How accurate are the polls when forecasting election outcomes well into the future? British Politics and Policy at LSE.
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Paul Whiteley correlates Labour and Conservative vote intentions data with the actual polling day results in all UK general elections since 1945. Among his findings is the fact that the Conservative vote share consistently appears to be more predictable than that of Labour, suggesting that Labour support is more volatile than Conservative support.

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