Probabilities of counterfactuals

Bradley, R.ORCID logo (2021). Probabilities of counterfactuals. Argumenta, 6(2), 179-193. https://doi.org/10.14275/2465-2334/202112.bra
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The subjective probability of a subjunctive conditional is argued to be equal to the expected conditional credence in its consequent, given the truth of its antecedent, of an ‘expert’: someone who reasons faultlessly and who, at each point in time, is as fully informed about the state of the world as it is possible to be at that time.

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