The macroeconomic impacts of the new protocol on Northern Ireland and how they can be mitigated

Geoffroy Duparc-Portier and Gioele Figus use a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between Britain and the EU will have a greater negative impact on Northern Ireland’s economy. However, this may be reduced by the ability of Northern Irish firms to substitute intermediate inputs from Britain for EU imports.