Spillover effects from new housing supply

Abstract

I estimate spillovers from new housing supply on house prices. To estimate these effects, I use exogenous variation in supply induced by a housing subsidy implemented in middle-income neighborhoods in the city of Montevideo, Uruguay. I find evidence of externalities from the new supply on house prices, with prices increasing 12%. I explore two possible mechanisms of these externalities: income and crime rates. Although the evidence suggests a reduction in property crime rates, changes in the neighborhood income mix due to the supply expansion represent an important contributor to the external effects. These findings underline the role of amenities in the determination of local house prices.