Would you be able to guess how other people voted? The answer is not so simple

How well do citizens understand the associations between social groups and political divisions in their societies? Noam Titelman and Ben Lauderdale report results from two experiments where subjects were provided with randomly selected demographic profiles of voters and were asked to assess either which party that individual was likely to have voted for in the 2017 election or whether they were likely to have voted Leave or Remain in the 2016 referendum. They find that, despite substantial overconfidence in individual responses, on average citizens’ guesses broadly reflect the actual distribution of groups supporting the parties and referendum positions.