While the Conservatives are working with a tailwind in the Red Wall, in our blunder-prone system the local elections remain unpredictable

019 saw a Conservative break-through in the so-called Red Wall, now established as the critical battleground of British politics. The 2021 local elections may tell us something about electoral trends in the Red Wall. The Conservatives may be in a ‘virtuous circle’ of success in local and parliamentary elections, but their attempt to build a durable appeal there around ‘levelling-up’ is flawed, argues Lawrence McKay.