The March Budget triumph will not solve our deep economic problems

The chancellor is formally required to condition his fiscal policy choices on the OBR’s economic forecast. Jagjit S. Chadha (NIESR) writes that the OBR’s sequence of forecasts after the financial crisis were persistently optimistic and the period since the Brexit referendum has been plagued by an endemic uncertainty that has frustrated rational expectations of investment, wages growth and productivity gains. He advises great caution, gradual policy initiatives, and readiness to change tack if the economy does not evolve as expected.