Brexit remains far from over: the “slow burn” of EU-exit will stress the British economy long term

The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement represents another step in a drawn-out, phase-by-phase Brexit, according to Dennis Shen (Scope Ratings). While the UK is expected to ultimately maintain significant access to the single market, the new customs border and uncertainties around the degree of future single-market access of UK services exporters raise economic costs. In the end, an end-state like a Swiss-esque model except accelerated with respect to the cumulative negotiation horizon, and negotiated in reverse with the UK having started from fully-frictionless trade, looks possible.