Armenia: the dangers of lifting lockdown when r is still above 1

Ayvazyan, K. & Grigoryan, A. (1 July 2020) Armenia: the dangers of lifting lockdown when r is still above 1. LSE COVID-19 Blog.
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Armenia lifted its lockdown in early May, when infection rates had been flatlining for three weeks. Knarik Ayvazyan (Central Bank of Armenia) and Armine Grigoryan (Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy) use an extended SIR epidemic model to show why rates rose again in May and June.

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