Can Andrzej Duda lose the Polish presidential election?

Poland will hold a presidential election on 10 May, with a second round of voting scheduled for two weeks later if no candidate wins 50% of the vote. Aleks Szczerbiak explains that incumbent President Andrzej Duda will start as favourite, boosted by his credibility in helping deliver the government’s social spending and welfare policies, and his strong base in small-town, provincial Poland. But his fortunes are linked to the ruling party’s popularity and, given how polarised and evenly divided the Polish political scene is, the election promises to be closely fought and unpredictable.