COVID-19 is increasing the power of Brazil’s criminal groups

Data from various states suggest that COVID-19 lockdowns have done little to reduce the use of violence by criminal groups in Brazil. What has changed is governance, with criminal actors adapting to coronavirus by imposing curfews, restricting movement, promoting public-health messages, and discouraging price gouging – alongside their usual practices of extortion and drug trafficking. Such changes in violence and governance indicate that Brazil’s non-state armed groups continue to augment their power, and these gains may well persist once the pandemic has receded, write Ryan Berg (American Enterprise Institute) and Andrea Varsori (Urban Violence Research Network).