Testing the wisdom of the crowds argument: local opinion in the 43 ‘Red Wall’ constituencies that Labour lost

As a general election approaches, parties want to know not only how many seats they will win but also which ones. Some argue that the best source of such information is the voters in the individual seats because they are more aware of trends in local opinion; so ask enough of them and the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ will indicate the expected winner. Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie, and Todd Hartman test that argument using data for the ‘Red Wall’ constituencies that Labour lost to the Conservatives in 2019.