Estimating the monetary value of the deaths prevented from the UK Covid-19 lockdown when it was decided upon -- and the value of "flattening the curve"

In tackling Covid-19, the UK made a very significant decision to move from a mitigation strategy to one of suppression in mid-March 2020. As with any decision, this brings benefits and creates costs. In this paper, we seek to provide an indicative value of the benefits from the policy shift. We calculate the expected monetary value of the deaths prevented using data available when the decision was made.