Channeling Fisher: randomization tests and the statistical insignificance of seemingly significant experimental results

Young, Alwyn (2019) Channeling Fisher: randomization tests and the statistical insignificance of seemingly significant experimental results Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134 (2). 557 - 598. ISSN 0033-5533
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I follow R. A. Fisher's The Design of Experiments (1935), using randomization statistical inference to test the null hypothesis of no treatment effects in a comprehensive sample of 53 experimental papers drawn from the journals of the American Economic Association. In the average paper, randomization tests of the significance of individual treatment effects find 13% to 22% fewer significant results than are found using authors’ methods. In joint tests of multiple treatment effects appearing together in tables, randomization tests yield 33% to 49% fewer statistically significant results than conventional tests. Bootstrap and jackknife methods support and confirm the randomization results.

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