Watkins, Nicholas W.

Number of items: 40.
None
  • Stainforth, David A., Nicholas, Watkins W., Calel, Raphael, Chapman, Sandra C. (2020). Replication Data for: Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change. [Dataset]. Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/5ajgh4
  • Leamon, Robert J., McIntosh, Scott W., Chapman, Sandra C., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2020). Timing terminators: forecasting sunspot cycle 25 onset. Solar Physics, 295(2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3
  • Watkins, Nicholas W. (2013). Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(2), 402-410. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50103
    • Public
  • Hnat, B., Chapman, S. C., Liptrott, C. M., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2025). Solar wind magnetohydrodynamic turbulence energy transfer rate ordered by magnetic field topology. Physical Review Research, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.1103/9wb2-r437 picture_as_pdf
  • Cafolla, M. A., Chapman, S. C., Watkins, N. W., Meng, X., Verkhoglyadova, O. P. (2025). Dynamics of TEC high density regions seen in JPL GIMs: variations with latitude, season and geomagnetic activity. Space Weather, 23(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024sw004307 picture_as_pdf
  • Watkins, Nicholas w. (2024). Brownian motion as mathematical superstructure to organize the science of climate and weather. In Krakauer, D. (Ed.), Foundational Papers in Complexity Science: Volume 3 (pp. 1481-1510). SFI Press. https://doi.org/10.37911/9781947864542.51 picture_as_pdf
  • Watkins, Nicholas W., Calel, Raphael, Chapman, Sandra C., Chechkin, Aleksei, Klages, Rainer, Stainforth, David A. (2024). The challenge of non-Markovian energy balance models in climate. Chaos, 34(7). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0187815 picture_as_pdf
  • Allanson, Oliver, Ma, Donglai, Osmane, Adnane, Albert, Jay M., Bortnik, Jacob, Watt, Clare E.J., Chapman, Sandra C., Spencer, Joseph, Ratliff, Daniel J. & Meredith, Nigel P. et al (2024). The challenge to understand the zoo of particle transport regimes during resonant wave-particle interactions for given survey-mode wave spectra. Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, 11, https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2024.1332931 picture_as_pdf
  • Meng, X., Verkhoglyadova, O. P., Chapman, S. C., Watkins, Nicholas W., Cafolla, M. (2024). Statistical characteristics of total electron content intensifications on global ionospheric maps. Space Weather, 22(1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003695 picture_as_pdf
  • Hnat, Bogdan, Chapman, Sandra, Watkins, Nicholas (2023). Topology of turbulence within collisionless plasma reconnection. Scientific Reports, 13(1), p. 18665. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-45650-x picture_as_pdf
  • Bergin, A., Chapman, S. C., Watkins, N. W., Moloney, N. R., Gjerloev, J. W. (2023). Extreme event statistics in Dst, SYM-H, and SMR geomagnetic indices. Space Weather, 21(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003304 picture_as_pdf
  • Bergin, A., Chapman, S. C., Watkins, N. W., Moloney, N.R. (2022). Variation of geomagnetic index empirical distribution and burst statistics across successive solar cycles. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 127(1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JA029986 picture_as_pdf
  • Chapman, S. C., McIntosh, S. W., Leamon, R. J., Watkins, N. W. (2021). The sun's magnetic (Hale) cycle and 27 day recurrences in the aa Geomagnetic Index. Astrophysical Journal, 917(2). https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac069e picture_as_pdf
  • Watkins, Nicholas W., Chapman, Sandra C., Chechkin, Aleksei, Ford, Ian, Klages, Rainer, Stainforth, David A. (2021). On generalized Langevin dynamics and the modelling of global mean temperature. In Braha, D., de Aguiar, M. A., Gershenson, C., Morales, A. J., Kaufman, L., Naumova, E. N., Minai, A. A. & Bar-Yam, Y. (Eds.), Unifying Themes in Complex Systems X: Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Complex Systems (pp. 433 - 441). Springer Science and Business Media B.V.. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67318-5_29 picture_as_pdf
  • Hnat, B., Chapman, S. C., Watkins, N. W. (2021). Magnetic topology of actively evolving and passively convecting structures in the turbulent solar wind. Physical Review Letters, 126(12). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.125101 picture_as_pdf
  • McIntosh, Scott W., Chapman, Sandra, Leamon, Robert J., Egeland, Ricky, Watkins, Nicholas W. (2020). Overlapping magnetic activity cycles and the sunspot number: forecasting sunspot cycle 25 amplitude. Solar Physics, 295(12). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y picture_as_pdf
  • Calel, Raphael, Chapman, S.C., Stainforth, David A., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2020). Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change. Nature Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18797-8 picture_as_pdf
  • Chapman, S. C., McIntosh, S. W., Leamon, R. J., Watkins, N. W. (2020). Quantifying the solar cycle modulation of extreme space weather. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087795 picture_as_pdf
  • Chapman, S. C., Murphy, E. J., Stainforth, D. A., Watkins, N. W. (2020). Trends in winter warm spells in the central England temperature record. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 59(6), 1069 - 1076. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0267.1 picture_as_pdf
  • Franzke, Christian L.E., Barbosa, Susana, Blender, Richard, Fredriksen, Hege-Beate, Laepple, Thomas, Lambert, Fabrice, Nilsen, Tine, Rypdal, Kristoffer, Rypdal, Martin & Scotto, Manuel et al (2020). The structure of climate variability across scales. Reviews of Geophysics, 58(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000657 picture_as_pdf
  • Chapman, S.C., Horne, R.B, Watkins, Nicholas W. (2020). Using the aa index over the last 14 solar cycles to characterize extreme Geomagnetic activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086524 picture_as_pdf
  • Watkins, N. W. (2019). Mandelbrot's stochastic time series models. Earth and Space Science, 6(11), 2044 - 2056. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000598 picture_as_pdf
  • Palyulin, Vladimir, Blackburn, George, Lomholt, Michael A, Watkins, Nicholas W., Metzler, Ralf, Kleges, Rainer, Chechkin, Aleksei V (2019). First passage and first hitting times of Lévy flights and Lévy walks. New Journal of Physics, 21(10). https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/ab41bb picture_as_pdf
  • Chapman, S.C., Watkins, Nicholas W., Stainforth, David A. (2019). Warming trends in summer heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(3), 1634-1640. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081004 picture_as_pdf
  • Shepherd, Theodore G., Boyd, Emily, Calel, Raphael A., Chapman, Sandra C., Dessai, Suraje, Dima-West, Ioana M., Fowler, Hayley J., James, Rachel, Maraun, Douglas & Martius, Olivia et al (2018). Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9 picture_as_pdf
  • Tindale, E., Chapman, S.C., Moloney, N.R., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2018). The dependence of solar wind burst size on burst duration and its invariance across solar cycles 23 and 24. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 123(9), 7196-7210. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA025740 picture_as_pdf
  • Watkins, Nicholas W. (2018). (A)phantasia and severely deficient autobiographical memory: scientific and personal perspectives. Cortex, 105, 41-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2017.10.010 picture_as_pdf
  • Chapman, S. C., Watkins, Nicholas W., Tindale, E. (2018). Reproducible aspects of the climate of space weather over the last five solar cycles. Space Weather, 16(8), 1128-1142. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001884
  • Watkins, Nicholas W. (2017). On the continuing relevance of Mandelbrot's non-ergodic fractional renewal models of 1963 to 1967. European Physical Journal B, 90(241). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2017-80357-3
  • Graves, Timothy, Gramacy, Robert, Watkins, Nicholas W., Franzke, Christian (2017). A brief history of long memory: Hurst, Mandelbrot and the road to ARFIMA, 1951–1980. Entropy, 19(9), p. 437. https://doi.org/10.3390/e19090437
  • Graves, Timothy, Franzke, Christian L.E., Watkins, Nicholas W., Gramacy, Robert B., Tindale, Elizabeth (2017). Systematic inference of the long-range dependence and heavy-tail distribution parameters of ARFIMA models. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 473, 60-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.01.028
  • Watkins, Nicholas W., Pruessner, Gunnar, Chapman, Sandra C., Crosby, Norma B., Jensen, Henrik J. (2016). 25 years of self-organized criticality: concepts and controversies. Space Science Reviews, 198(1), 3-44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-015-0155-x
  • Hush, P., Chapman, S. C., Dunlop, M. W., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2015). Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(21), 9197-9202. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066277
  • Graves, T., Gramacy, R. B., Franzke, C. L. E., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2015). Efficient Bayesian inference for natural time series using ARFIMA processes. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 22(6), 679-700. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-679-2015
  • Chapman, Sandra C., Stainforth, David A., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2015). Limits to the quantification of local climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 10(9), 094018. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094018
  • Franzke, Christian L. E., Osprey, Scott M., Davini, Paolo, Watkins, Nicholas W. (2015). A dynamical systems explanation of the Hurst effect and atmospheric low-frequency variability. Scientific Reports, 5(9068). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep09068
  • Chapman, S. C., Dendy, R. O., Todd, T. N., Watkins, Nicholas W., Webster, A. J., Calderoni, Francesco, Morris, Jill (2014). Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET. Physics of Plasmas, 21(062302). https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4881474
  • Stainforth, David A., Chapman, Sandra C., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2013). Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034031
  • Chapman, Sandra C., Stainforth, David A., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2013). On estimating local long-term climate trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 371(1991). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0287
  • Capparelli, V., Franzke, C., Vecchio, A., Freeman, M. P., Watkins, Nicholas W., Carbone, V. (2013). A spatiotemporal analysis of US station temperature trends over the last century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(14), 7427-7434. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50551