Stainforth, David A.

Number of items: 54.
Article
  • de Melo Viríssimo, Francisco, Stainforth, David A. (2025). Micro- and macroparametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106(7), E1319-E1341. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0064.1 picture_as_pdf
  • Calel, Raphael, Stainforth, David A. (2025). Little floods everywhere what will climate change mean for you? Climatic Change, 178(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03819-x picture_as_pdf
  • Baldissera Pacchetti, Marina, Dessai, Suraje, Risbey, James S., Stainforth, David A., Thompson, Erica (2024). Perspectives on the quality of climate information for adaptation decision support. Climatic Change, 177(11). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03823-1 picture_as_pdf
  • Watkins, Nicholas W., Calel, Raphael, Chapman, Sandra C., Chechkin, Aleksei, Klages, Rainer, Stainforth, David A. (2024). The challenge of non-Markovian energy balance models in climate. Chaos, 34(7). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0187815 picture_as_pdf
  • de Melo Virissimo, Francisco, Stainforth, David A., Bröcker, Jochen (2024). The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: a climate change example. Chaos, 34(1). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0180870 picture_as_pdf
  • Cael, B. B., Goodwin, P., Pearce, C. R., Stainforth, David (2023). Benefit-cost ratios of carbon dioxide removal strategies. Environmental Research Letters, 18(11). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acffdc picture_as_pdf
  • Rising, James, Tedesco, Marco, Piontek, Franziska, Stainforth, David A. (2022). The missing risks of climate change. Nature, 610, 643 – 651. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05243-6 picture_as_pdf
  • Cael, B. B., Britten, G L, Calafat, F Mir, Bloch-Johnson, J, Stainforth, David, Goodwin, P (2022). Climate nonlinearities: selection, uncertainty, projections, and damages. Environmental Research Letters, 17(8). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8238 picture_as_pdf
  • Stainforth, David A., Calel, Raphael (2021). The economics of global climate variability. US CLIVAR Variations, 20(1), 13-17. picture_as_pdf
  • Katzav, Joel, Thompson, Erica L., Risbey, James, Stainforth, David A., Bradley, Seamus, Frisch, Mathias (2021). On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives. Climatic Change, 169(1-2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03267-x picture_as_pdf
  • Pacchetti, Marina Baldissera, Dessai, Suraje, Stainforth, David A., Bradley, Seamus (2021). Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018. Climatic Change, 168(1-2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03187-w picture_as_pdf
  • Stainforth, David A. (2021). Polluter pays policy could speed up emission reductions and removal of atmospheric CO2. Nature, 596(7872), 346 - 347. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02192-4
  • Stainforth, David A. (2021). The effects of assigning liability for CO2 removal. Nature,
  • Pacchetti, Marina Baldissera, Dessai, Suraje, Bradley, Seamus, Stainforth, David A. (2021). Assessing the quality of regional climate information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(3), E476 - E491. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0008.1 picture_as_pdf
  • Stainforth, David A., Calel, Raphael (2020). New priorities for climate science and climate economics in the 2020s. Nature Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16624-8 picture_as_pdf
  • Calel, Raphael, Chapman, S.C., Stainforth, David A., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2020). Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change. Nature Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18797-8 picture_as_pdf
  • Chapman, S. C., Murphy, E. J., Stainforth, D. A., Watkins, N. W. (2020). Trends in winter warm spells in the central England temperature record. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 59(6), 1069 - 1076. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0267.1 picture_as_pdf
  • Harrison, Stephan, Mighall, Tim, Stainforth, David A., Allen, Philip, Macklin, Mark, Anderson, Edward, Knight, Jasper, Mauquoy, Dmitri, Passmore, David & Rea, Brice et al (2019). Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change. Climatic Change, 156(1-2), 69-86. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02520-8 picture_as_pdf
  • Chapman, S.C., Watkins, Nicholas W., Stainforth, David A. (2019). Warming trends in summer heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(3), 1634-1640. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081004 picture_as_pdf
  • Shepherd, Theodore G., Boyd, Emily, Calel, Raphael A., Chapman, Sandra C., Dessai, Suraje, Dima-West, Ioana M., Fowler, Hayley J., James, Rachel, Maraun, Douglas & Martius, Olivia et al (2018). Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9 picture_as_pdf
  • Dessai, Suraje, Bhave, Ajay Gajanan, Birch, Cathryn, Conway, Declan, Garcia-Carreras, Luis, Gosling, John Paul, Mittal, Neha, Stainforth, David A. (2018). Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7), 074005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdd
  • Bhave, Ajay Gajanan, Conway, Declan, Dessai, Suraje, Stainforth, David A. (2018). Water resource planning under future climate and socioeconomic uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. Water Resources Research, 54(2), 708-728. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020970
  • Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2018). Getting weather back into the definition of climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
  • Calel, Raphael, Stainforth, David A. (2017). On the physics of three integrated assessment models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(6), 1199-1216. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0034.1
  • Bhave, Ajay Gajanan, Conway, Declan, Dessai, Suraje, Stainforth, David A. (2017). Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world. Climate Risk Management, 14, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.09.004
  • Hawkins, Ed, Smith, Robin S., Gregory, Jonathan M., Stainforth, David A. (2016). Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Climate Dynamics, 46(11), 3807-3819. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2015). An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese, 192(12), 3979-4008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8
  • Calel, Raphael, Stainforth, David A., Dietz, Simon (2015). Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming. Climatic Change, 132(1), 127-141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0911-4
  • Daron, J.D., Stainforth, David A. (2015). On quantifying the climate of the nonautonomous lorenz-63 model. Chaos, 25(4). https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4916789
  • Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., Min, E., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Petersen, A.C., Stainforth, David A., Vasileiadou, E., Smith, L. A. (2015). Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5(2), 107-113. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450
  • Wesselink, Anna, Challinor, Andrew Juan, Watson, James, Beven, Keith, Allen, Icarus, Hanlon, Helen, Lopez, Ana, Lorenz, Susanne, Otto, Friederike E. L. & Morse, Andy et al (2015). Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. Climatic Change, 132(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1213-1
  • Chapman, Sandra C., Stainforth, David A., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2015). Limits to the quantification of local climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 10(9), 094018. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094018
  • Stainforth, David A. (2014). Climate projection: testing climate assumptions. Nature Climate Change, 4(4), 248-249. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2172
  • Daron, Joseph D., Stainforth, David A. (2014). Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate. Climate Risk Management, 1, 76-91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2014.01.001
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2013). The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science, 80(5), 886-897. https://doi.org/10.1086/673892
  • Stainforth, David A., Chapman, Sandra C., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2013). Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034031
  • Daron, Joseph D., Stainforth, David A. (2013). On predicting climate under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021
  • Chapman, Sandra C., Stainforth, David A., Watkins, Nicholas W. (2013). On estimating local long-term climate trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 371(1991). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0287
  • Millner, Antony, Calel, Raphael, Stainforth, David A., MacKerron, George (2012). Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists' uncertainty about climate change? Climatic Change, 116(2), 427-436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0620-4
  • Stainforth, David A., Smith, Leonard A. (2012). Policy: clarify the limits of climate models. Nature, 489(7415), p. 208. https://doi.org/10.1038/489208a
  • Oreskes, Naomi, Stainforth, David A., Smith, Leonard A. (2010). Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Philosophy of Science, 77(5), 1012-1028. https://doi.org/10.1086/657428
  • Rougier, Jonathan, Sexton, David M. H, Murphy, James M., Stainforth, David A. (2009). Analyzing the climate sensitivity of the HadSM3 climate model using ensembles from different but related experiments. Journal of Climate, 22(13), 3540-3557. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2533.1
  • Sanderson, Benjamin M., Knutti, R., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Ingram, W. J., Piani, C., Stainforth, David A. & Stone, D. A. et al (2008). Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes. Journal of Climate, 21(11), 2384-2400. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1869.1
  • Stainforth, David A., Allen, M. R., Tredger, Edward, Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857), 2145-2161. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2074
  • Stainforth, David A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A. & Murphy, J. M. et al (2005). Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433(7024), 403-406. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03301
    • Chapter
  • Watkins, Nicholas W., Chapman, Sandra C., Chechkin, Aleksei, Ford, Ian, Klages, Rainer, Stainforth, David A. (2021). On generalized Langevin dynamics and the modelling of global mean temperature. In Braha, D., de Aguiar, M. A., Gershenson, C., Morales, A. J., Kaufman, L., Naumova, E. N., Minai, A. A. & Bar-Yam, Y. (Eds.), Unifying Themes in Complex Systems X: Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Complex Systems (pp. 433 - 441). Springer Science and Business Media B.V.. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67318-5_29 picture_as_pdf
    • Dataset
  • de Melo Viríssimo, Francisco, Stainforth, David A. (2024). Model output used in the manuscript "Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective". [Dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13200873
  • de Melo Viríssimo, Francisco, Stainforth, David A., Bröcker, Jochen (2023). Model output used in the manuscript "The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: a climate change example". [Dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8367809
  • Stainforth, David A., Nicholas, Watkins W., Calel, Raphael, Chapman, Sandra C. (2020). Replication Data for: Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change. [Dataset]. Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/5ajgh4
  • Stainforth, David (2019). Improving the use of evidence from climate models 2008-2013. [Dataset]. UK Data Service. https://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853918
  • Conway, Declan, Stainforth, David, Bhave, Ajay Gajanan, Dessai, Suraje (2017). Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model for the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. [Dataset]. Research Data Leeds. https://doi.org/10.5518/303
    • Report
  • Gibbs, Peter, Hanlon, Michael, Hardaker, Paul, Hawkins, Ed, MacDonald, Averil, Maskell, Kathy, Mayfield, Heather, Mclean, Angela, Morris, Elizabeth & Mylne, Ken et al (2013). Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science. Sense About Science.
    • Working paper
  • Stainforth, David A. (2010). Probabilistic regional and seasonal predictions of twenty-first century temperature and precipitation. (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment 23). Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    • Blog post
  • Stainforth, David A. (16 November 2023) Q and A with David Stainforth on Predicting our climate future: what we know, what we don’t know, and what we can’t know. LSE Review of Books. picture_as_pdf