Items where Division is "Centre for Analysis of Time Series" and Year is

  • University Structure (97939)
  • Centre for Analysis of Time Series (284)
    Number of items: 282.
    Article
  • Control system-plasma synchronization and naturally occurring edge localized modes in a tokamak. UNSPECIFIED
  • Intrinsic ELMing in ASDEX Upgrade and global control system-plasma self-entrainment. UNSPECIFIED picture_as_pdf
  • The global build-up to intrinsic ELM bursts and comparison with pellet triggered ELMs seen in JET. UNSPECIFIED
  • The global build-up to intrinsic edge localized mode bursts seen in divertor full flux loops in JET. UNSPECIFIED
  • Temperature oscillations. Allen, Myles R. and Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Temperature time-series? Allen, Myles R. and Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Turning weather forecasts into business forecasts. Altalo, Mary G. and Hale, M.
  • Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk. Altalo, Mary G. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Cloudy forecast for weather satellite data. Baker, James
  • Effects of weather and hunting on wild reindeer population dynamics in Hardangervidda National Park. Bargmann, Tessa and Wheatcroft, Edward and Imperio, Simona and Vetaas, Ole R. picture_as_pdf
  • Assessing the costs of protection in a context of switching stochastic regimes. Barrieu, Pauline and Bellamy, Nadine and Sahut, Jean-Michel
  • Weather hedging at the hot air gas company. Barrieu, Pauline and Dischel, Robert S.
  • Monotone stability of quadratic semimartingales with applications to general quadratic BSDEs. Barrieu, Pauline and El Karoui, Nicole
  • Optimal design of weather derivatives. Barrieu, Pauline and El Karoui, Nicole
  • Optimal risk transfer. Barrieu, Pauline and El Karoui, Nicole
  • Market-consistent modeling for cap-and-trade schemes and application to option pricing. Barrieu, Pauline and Fehr, Max
  • Reinsurance and securitisation of life insurance risk: the impact of regulatory constraints. Barrieu, Pauline and Louberge, Henri
  • Assessing financial model risk. Barrieu, Pauline and Scandolo, Giacomo
  • Iterates of the infinitesimal generator and space-time harmonic polynomials of a Markov process. Barrieu, Pauline and Schoutens, Wim
  • Pricing q-forward contracts: an evaluation of estimation window and pricing method under different mortality models. Barrieu, Pauline and Veraart, Luitgard A. M.
  • Feasible region approximation: a comparison of search cone and convex hull methods. Bates, R. A. and Wynn, H. P. and Fraga, E. S.
  • Modelling feasible design regions using lattice-based kernel methods. Bates, R. A. and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Uncertainty quantification. Berger, J. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • On the statistical formalism of uncertainty quantification. Berger, James O. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Extreme event statistics in Dst, SYM-H, and SMR geomagnetic indices. Bergin, A. and Chapman, S. C. and Watkins, N. W. and Moloney, N. R. and Gjerloev, J. W. picture_as_pdf
  • Nonlinear matroid optimization and experimental design. Berstein, Yael and Lee, Jon and Maruri-Aguilar, Hugo and Onn, Shmuel and Riccomagno, Eva and Weismantel, Robert and Wynn, Henry P.
  • I believe in climate change but how precautionary do we need to be in planning for the future? Beven, Keith
  • So how much of your error is epistemic? Lessons from Japan and Italy. Beven, Keith
  • What we see now: event-persistence and the predictability of hydro-eco-geomorphological systems. Beven, Keith
  • On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it). Beven, Keith and Smith, P. J. and Wood, A.
  • Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision-making for water management under uncertainty. Beven, Keith J. and Alcock, Ruth E.
  • Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score. Bröcker, Jochen
  • Analyzing communication schemes using methods from nonlinear filtering. Bröcker, Jochen and Parlitz, Ulrich
  • From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper. Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change. Calel, Raphael and Chapman, S.C. and Stainforth, David A. and Watkins, Nicholas W. picture_as_pdf
  • Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming. Calel, Raphael and Stainforth, David A. and Dietz, Simon
  • Approximation of Probability Density Functions for PDEs with Random Parameters Using Truncated Series Expansions. Capodaglio, Giacomo and Gunzburger, Max and Wynn, Henry P.
  • A spatiotemporal analysis of US station temperature trends over the last century. Capparelli, V. and Franzke, C. and Vecchio, A. and Freeman, M. P. and Watkins, Nicholas W. and Carbone, V.
  • Quantifying the solar cycle modulation of extreme space weather. Chapman, S. C. and McIntosh, S. W. and Leamon, R. J. and Watkins, N. W. picture_as_pdf
  • Trends in winter warm spells in the central England temperature record. Chapman, S. C. and Murphy, E. J. and Stainforth, D. A. and Watkins, N. W. picture_as_pdf
  • Reproducible aspects of the climate of space weather over the last five solar cycles. Chapman, S. C. and Watkins, Nicholas W. and Tindale, E.
  • Using the aa index over the last 14 solar cycles to characterize extreme Geomagnetic activity. Chapman, S.C. and Horne, R.B and Watkins, Nicholas W. picture_as_pdf
  • Warming trends in summer heatwaves. Chapman, S.C. and Watkins, Nicholas W. and Stainforth, David A. picture_as_pdf
  • The sun's magnetic (Hale) cycle and 27 day recurrences in the aa Geomagnetic Index. Chapman, S. C. and McIntosh, S. W. and Leamon, R. J. and Watkins, N. W. picture_as_pdf
  • On quantifying the climate of the nonautonomous lorenz-63 model. Daron, J.D. and Stainforth, David A.
  • Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate. Daron, Joseph D. and Stainforth, David A.
  • The influence of structural balance and homophily/heterophobia on the adjustment of random complete signed networks. Deng, Hongzhong and Abell, Peter and Engel, Ofer and Wu, Jun and Tan, Yuejin
  • Multi-model cross-pollination in time. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Parameter estimation through ignorance. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part I: the perfect model scenario. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part II: the perfect model scenario. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Rising above chaotic likelihoods. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Optimization via statistical emulation and uncertainty quantification:hosting capacity analysis of distribution networks. Du, Hailiang and Sun, Wei and Goldstein, Michael and Harrison, Gareth P. picture_as_pdf
  • Development of a synthesis tool for gas-to-liquid complexes. Ellepola, Jerome and Thijssen, Nort and Grievink, Johan and Baak, Govert and Avhale, Abhijeet and van Schijndel, Jan
  • Asymptotic estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection counts and their sensitivity to stochastic perturbation. Faranda, Davide and Castillo, Isaac Pérez and Hulme, Oliver and Jezequel, Aglaé and Lamb, Jeroen S.W. and Sato, Yuzuru and Thompson, Erica L.
  • “Building” exact confidence nets. Francis, Andrew R. and Stehlík, Milan and Wynn, Henry P.
  • A mean first passage time genome rearrangement distance. Francis, Andrew R. and Wynn, Henry P.
  • A dynamical systems explanation of the Hurst effect and atmospheric low-frequency variability. Franzke, Christian L. E. and Osprey, Scott M. and Davini, Paolo and Watkins, Nicholas W.
  • The structure of climate variability across scales. Franzke, Christian L.E. and Barbosa, Susana and Blender, Richard and Fredriksen, Hege-Beate and Laepple, Thomas and Lambert, Fabrice and Nilsen, Tine and Rypdal, Kristoffer and Rypdal, Martin and Scotto, Manuel and Vannitsem, Stéphane and Watkins, Nicholas W. and Yang, Lichao and Yuan, Naiming picture_as_pdf
  • The biomechanical influence of tibio-talar containment on stability of the ankle joint. Frigg, Arno and Frigg, Roman and Hintermann, Beat and Barg, Alexey and Valderrabano, Victor
  • Book review: a companionable coverage of the philosophy of science. Frigg, Roman
  • Book review: ontological aspects of quantum field theory. Frigg, Roman
  • Book review: the images of time: an essay on temporal representation. Frigg, Roman
  • Book review: ubiquity: the science of history ... or why the world is simpler than we think. Frigg, Roman
  • Clever fetishists. Frigg, Roman
  • Book review: explaining chaos. Frigg, Roman and Berkovitz, Joseph
  • Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A.
  • The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A.
  • Everything you always wanted to know about structural realism but were afraid to ask. Frigg, Roman and Votsis, Ioannis
  • Demystifying typicality. Frigg, Roman and Werndl, Charlotte
  • Dynamic risk control for project development. Gasparini, Mauro and Margaria, Gabriella and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Indifference pricing with uncertainty averse preferences. Giammarino, Flavia and Barrieu, Pauline
  • A semiparametric model for the systematic factors of portfolio credit risk premia. Giammarino, Flavia and Barrieu, Pauline
  • Grobner bases, abstract tubes, and inclusion-exclusion reliability bounds. Giglio, Beatrice and Naiman, D.Q. and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Linear regime duration: is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? Gilmour, Isla and Smith, Leonard A. and Buizza, Roberto
  • A new approach to inter-rater agreement through stochastic orderings: the discrete case. Giovagnoli, Alessandra and Marzialetti, Johnny and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Stochastic orderings for discrete random variables. Giovagnoli, Alessandra and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Lacunarity and period-doubling. Glendinning, Paul and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data. Golobic, I. and Pavlovic, E. and von Hardenberg, J. and Berry, M. and Nelson, R.A. and Kenning, D.B.R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Efficient Bayesian inference for natural time series using ARFIMA processes. Graves, T. and Gramacy, R. B. and Franzke, C. L. E. and Watkins, Nicholas W.
  • Systematic inference of the long-range dependence and heavy-tail distribution parameters of ARFIMA models. Graves, Timothy and Franzke, Christian L.E. and Watkins, Nicholas W. and Gramacy, Robert B. and Tindale, Elizabeth
  • A brief history of long memory: Hurst, Mandelbrot and the road to ARFIMA, 1951–1980. Graves, Timothy and Gramacy, Robert and Watkins, Nicholas W. and Franzke, Christian
  • Improved analytic characterization of ultraviolet skylight. Green, A. E. S. and Cross, K. R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension. Guerrero, A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence. Guerrero, Alexandra and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with Weather Roulette. Hagedorn, Renate and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Probabilistic noise reduction. Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations. Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Optimal experimental design and quadratic optimisation. Haycroft, Rebecca and Pronzato, Luc and Wynn, Henry P. and Zhigljavski, Anthony
  • Easy-to-construct confidence bands for comparing two simple linear regression lines. Hayter, A. J. and Liu, W. and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Slope modified confidence bands for a simple linear regression model. Hayter, A.J. and Wynn, Henry P. and Liu, W.
  • Tales of future weather. Hazeleger, W. and van den Hurk, B.J.J.M. and Min, E. and van Oldenborgh, G.J. and Petersen, A.C. and Stainforth, David A. and Vasileiadou, E. and Smith, L. A.
  • Storage costs in commodity option pricing. Hinz, Juri and Fehr, Max
  • Magnetic topology of actively evolving and passively convecting structures in the turbulent solar wind. Hnat, B. and Chapman, S. C. and Watkins, N. W. picture_as_pdf
  • Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE. Hush, P. and Chapman, S. C. and Dunlop, M. W. and Watkins, Nicholas W.
  • Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models. Imbers, J. and Lopez, A. and Huntingford, C. and Allen, M. R.
  • Sensitivity of climate change detection and attribution to the characterization of internal climate variability. Imbers, Jara and Lopez, Ana and Huntingford, Chris and Allen, Myles R.
  • Quantifying the predictability of a predictand: demonstrating the diverse roles of serial dependence in the estimation of forecast skill. Jarman, Alexander and Smith, Leonard A. picture_as_pdf
  • The geometry of model error. Judd, Kevin and Reynolds, Carolyn A. and Rosmond, Thomas E. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Indistinguishable states I: perfect model scenario. Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario. Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative informations. Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje
  • How good is an ensemble at capturing truth?: using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje
  • Close communications: hedge funds, brokers and the emergence of herding. Kellard, Neil and Millo, Yuval and Simon, Jan and Engel, Ofer
  • Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states. Khare, Shree and Smith, Leonard A.
  • The algebraic method in quadrature for uncertainty quantification. Ko, Jordan and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Empirical geodesic graphs and CAT(k) metrics for data analysis. Kobayashi, Kei and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Optimal experimental design that minimizes the width of simultaneous confidence bands. Kuriki, Satoshi and Wynn, Henry P. picture_as_pdf
  • Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams. Kwasniok, Frank and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Timing terminators:forecasting sunspot cycle 25 onset. Leamon, Robert J. and McIntosh, Scott W. and Chapman, Sandra C. and Watkins, Nicholas W.
  • Statistical inferences for linear regression models when the covariates have functional relationships: polynomial regression. Liu, Wei and Wynn, H. P. and Hayter, A. J.
  • Governing multi-level governance: comparing domain dynamics in German land-local relationships and prisons. Lodge, Martin and Wegrich, Kai
  • Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts. Lopez, A. and Suckling, E. B. and Otto, F. E. L. and Lorenz, A. and Rowlands, D. and Allen, M. R.
  • Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support. Lopez, Ana and Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Contracts, business models and barriers to investing in low temperature district heating projects. Lygnerud, Kristina and Wheatcroft, Edward and Wynn, Henry picture_as_pdf
  • Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules. Machete, Reason L.
  • Model imperfection and predicting predictability. Machete, Reason L.
  • Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems. Machete, Reason L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Overlapping magnetic activity cycles and the sunspot number:forecasting sunspot cycle 25 amplitude. McIntosh, Scott W. and Chapman, Sandra and Leamon, Robert J. and Egeland, Ricky and Watkins, Nicholas W. picture_as_pdf
  • A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals. McSharry, P. E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. McSharry, P. E. and He, T. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L.
  • Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method. McSharry, P.E. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L.
  • A method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. McSharry, Patrick E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions. McSharry, Patrick E. and Ellepola, Jerome H. and von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A. and Kenning, David B. R. and Judd, Kevin
  • Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood. McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, Lionel
  • Synchronized chaos in coupled double disk homopolar dynamos. Moroz, Irene M. and Smith, Leonard A. and Hide, Raymond
  • The algebra of Bonferroni bounds: discrete tubes and extensions. Naiman, D.Q. and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Mathematics is not the only language in the book of nature. Nguyen, James and Frigg, Roman
  • Targeted model evaluations for climate services:a case study on heat waves in Bangladesh. Nissan, Hannah and Muñoz, Ángel G. and Mason, Simon J. picture_as_pdf
  • Climate-proofing a malaria eradication strategy. Nissan, Hannah and Ukawuba, Israel and Thomson, Madeleine picture_as_pdf
  • Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Oreskes, Naomi and Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Model error in weather forecasting. Orrell, D. and Smith, Leonard A. and Barkmeijer, J. and Palmer, T. N.
  • Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram. Orrell, David and Smith, Leonard A.
  • On judging the credibility of climate predictions. Otto, Friederike E. L. and Ferro, Christopher A. T. and Fricker, Thomas E. and Suckling, Emma B.
  • First passage and first hitting times of Lévy flights and Lévy walks. Palyulin, Vladimir and Blackburn, George and Lomholt, Michael A and Watkins, Nicholas W. and Metzler, Ralf and Kleges, Rainer and Chechkin, Aleksei V picture_as_pdf
  • Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Paparella, F. and Provenzale, A. and Smith, Leonard A. and Taricco, C. and Vio, R.
  • Algebraic algorithms for the reliability analysis of multi-state k-out-of-n systems. Pascual-Ortigosa, Patricia and Sáenz-De-Cabezón, Eduardo and Wynn, Henry P. picture_as_pdf
  • Bond graph based sensitivity and uncertainty analysis modelling for micro-scale multiphysics robust engineering design. Perry, M.A. and Atherton, M.A. and Bates, R. A. and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Polynomial ideals, monomial bases and a divided difference formula. Pistone, Giovanni and Riccomagno, E. and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Extremal measures maximizing functionals based on simplicial volumes. Pronzato, Luc and Wynn, Henry P. and Zhigljavsky, Anatoly
  • Kantorovich-type inequalities for operators via D-optimal design theory. Pronzato, Luc and Wynn, Henry P. and Zhigljavsky, Anatoly A
  • Extended generalised variances, with applications. Pronzato, Luc and Wynn, Henry P. and Zhigljavsky, Anatoly A.
  • Bregman divergences based on optimal design criteria and simplicial measures of dispersion. Pronzato, Luc and Wynn, Henry P. and Zhigljavsky, Anatoly picture_as_pdf
  • Simplicial variances, potentials and Mahalanobis distances. Pronzato, Luc and Wynn, Henry P. and Zhigljavsky, Anatoly A.
  • Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series. Provenzale, A. and Smith, Leonard A. and Vio, R. and Murante, G.
  • Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments. Ranger, Nicola and Niehörster, Falk
  • Marine renewable energy. Rayner, R.F.
  • Connectivity – the glue that drives innovation. Rayner, Ralph
  • The U.S. integrated ocean observing system in a global context. Rayner, Ralph
  • The Ocean Enterprise–understanding and quantifying business activity in support of observing, measuring and forecasting the ocean. Rayner, Ralph and Gouldman, Carl and Willis, Zdenka picture_as_pdf
  • Ocean observing and the blue economy. Rayner, Ralph and Jolly, Claire and Gouldman, Carl picture_as_pdf
  • Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production. Roulston, M.S. and Kaplan, D.T. and Hardenberg, J. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models. Roulston, Mark S and Ellepola, Jerome and von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Roulston, Mark S. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Rowlands, Daniel J. and Frame, David J. and Ackerley, Duncan and Aina, Tolu and Booth, Ben B. B. and Christensen, Carl and Collins, Matthew and Faull, Nicholas and Forest, Chris E. and Grandey, Benjamin S. and Gryspeerdt, Edward and Highwood, Eleanor J. and Ingram, William J. and Knight, Sylvia and Lopez, Ana and Massey, Neil and McNamara, Frances and Meinshausen, Nicolai and Piani, Claudio and Rosier, Suzanne M. and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Smith, Leonard A. and Stone, Dáithí A. and Thurston, Milo and Yamazaki, Kuniko and Hiro Yamazaki, Y. and Allen, Myles R.
  • Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts. Siegert, Stefan and Bröcker, Jochen and Kantz, Holger
  • Rank histograms of stratified Monte Carlo ensembles. Siegert, Stefan and Bröcker, Jochen and Kantz, Holger
  • Comments on the paper of R Smith, estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Smith, Leonard A.
  • What might we learn from climate forecasts? Smith, Leonard A.
  • A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - comments. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models. Smith, Leonard A. and Cuellar, Milena C. and Du, Hailiang and Judd, Kevin
  • Designing multi-model applications with surrogate forecast systems. Smith, Leonard A. and Du, Hailiang and Higgins, Sarah picture_as_pdf
  • Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts. Smith, Leonard A. and Du, Hailiang and Suckling, Emma B. and Niehörster, Falk
  • Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence. Smith, Leonard A. and Fournier, J. D. and Spiegel, E. A.
  • Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Smith, Leonard A. and Hansen, James A.
  • Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows. Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A.
  • Strange accumulators. Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A.
  • Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Smith, Leonard A. and Stern, Nicholas
  • Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation. Smith, Leonard A. and Suckling, Emma B. and Thompson, Erica L. and Maynard, Trevor and Du, Hailiang
  • Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Smith, Leonard A. and Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K.
  • Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Stainforth, David A. and Aina, T. and Christensen, C. and Collins, M. and Faull, N. and Frame, D. J. and Kettleborough, J. A. and Knight, S. and Martin, A. and Murphy, J. M. and Piani, C. and Sexton, D. and Smith, Leonard A. and Spicer, R. A. and Thorpe, A. J. and Allen, M. R.
  • Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Stainforth, David A. and Allen, M. R. and Tredger, Edward and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Policy: clarify the limits of climate models. Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models. Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Concept of loss and damage of climate change – a new challenge for climate decision-making? a climate science perspective. Surminski, Swenja and Lopez, Ana
  • Managing the student experience in English higher education: differing responses to market pressures. Temple, Paul and Callender, Claire and Grove, Lyn and Kersh, Natasha
  • Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Theiler, James and Smith, Leonard A.
  • The influence of graphical format on judgmental forecasting accuracy: lines versus points. Theocharis, Zoe and Smith, Leonard A. and Harvey, Nigel picture_as_pdf
  • Expert judgment for climate change adaptation. Thompson, Erica and Frigg, Roman and Helgeson, Casey
  • Escape from model-land. Thompson, Erica L. and Smith, Leonard A. picture_as_pdf
  • The dependence of solar wind burst size on burst duration and its invariance across solar cycles 23 and 24. Tindale, E. and Chapman, S.C. and Moloney, N.R. and Watkins, Nicholas W. picture_as_pdf
  • Detecting instabilities in tree-ring proxy calibration. Visser, H. and Buentgen, U. and D'Arrigo, R. and Petersen, A.C.
  • Comparing district heating options under uncertainty using stochastic ordering. Volodina, Victoria and Wheatcroft, Edward and Wynn, Henry picture_as_pdf
  • Embracing equifinality with efficiency : limits of acceptability sampling using the DREAM(LOA) algorithm. Vrugt, Jasper A. and Beven, Keith J.
  • Mandelbrot's stochastic time series models. Watkins, N. W. picture_as_pdf
  • (A)phantasia and severely deficient autobiographical memory: scientific and personal perspectives. Watkins, Nicholas W. picture_as_pdf
  • Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems. Watkins, Nicholas W.
  • On the continuing relevance of Mandelbrot's non-ergodic fractional renewal models of 1963 to 1967. Watkins, Nicholas W.
  • 25 years of self-organized criticality: concepts and controversies. Watkins, Nicholas W. and Pruessner, Gunnar and Chapman, Sandra C. and Crosby, Norma B. and Jensen, Henrik J.
  • A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts. Weisheimer, Antje and Smith, Leonard A. and Judd, Kevin
  • Reconceptualising equilibrium in Boltzmannian statistical mechanics and characterising its existence. Werndl, Charlotte and Frigg, Roman picture_as_pdf
  • Rethinking boltzmannian equilibrium. Werndl, Charlotte and Frigg, Roman
  • Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football matches:the case against the ranked probability score. Wheatcroft, Edward picture_as_pdf
  • Forecasting football matches by predicting match statistics. Wheatcroft, Edward picture_as_pdf
  • Profiting from overreaction in soccer betting odds. Wheatcroft, Edward picture_as_pdf
  • The role of low temperature waste heat recovery in achieving 2050 goals:a policy positioning paper. Wheatcroft, Edward and Wynn, Henry P. and Lygnerud, Kristina and Bonvicini, Giorgio and Bonvicini, Giorgio and Lenote, Daniela picture_as_pdf
  • Interpreting the skill score form of forecast performance metrics. Wheatcroft, Edward picture_as_pdf
  • A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football. Wheatcroft, Edward picture_as_pdf
  • Algebraic solutions to the connectivity problem for mm-way layouts: interaction-contrast aliasing. Wynn, Henry P.
  • A discussion on adaptive designs for computer experiments. Youssef, Noha and Wynn, Henry
  • A decision support system for liability in civil litigation:a case study from an insurance company. Zhang, Wen and Dunkley, Andrew and Kanabar, Urvi and Elliott, David and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability. Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen
  • The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos. Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen
  • Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeitsexperiment im Lorenz-Modell. Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C. and Fraedrich, K. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Identification of nucleation site interactions. von Hardenberg, Jost and Kenning, David B. R. and Xing, Huijuan and Smith, Leonard A.
    • Book
  • Simulating nature: a philosophical study of computer-simulation uncertainties and their role in climate science and policy advice. Petersen, Arthur
  • Chaos: a very short introduction. Smith, Leonard A.
    • Chapter
  • Dynamic financial risk management. Barrieu, P. and El Karoui, N.
  • Micro-assurance et derives climatiques. Barrieu, Pauline
  • Optimal derivatives design under dynamic risk measures. Barrieu, Pauline and El Karoui, Nicole
  • A primer on weather derivatives. Barrieu, Pauline and Scaillet, Olivier
  • Conditional orthogonality and conditional stochastic realization. Caines, Peter E. and Deardon, R. and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Financial weather contracts and their application in risk management. Dischel, Robert S. and Barrieu, Pauline
  • Chance and determinism. Frigg, Roman
  • GRW theory (Ghirardi, Rimini, Weber model of quantum physics). Frigg, Roman
  • Grundprobleme der Statistischen Mechanik. Frigg, Roman
  • Los modelos y la ficción. Frigg, Roman
  • Models in physics. Frigg, Roman
  • Qu'est-ce que c'est la méchanique statistique? Frigg, Roman
  • The ergodic hierarchy. Frigg, Roman and Berkovitz, Joseph and Kronz, Fred
  • Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill. Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Machete, Reason L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Determinismo y probabilidad: una perspectiva humeana. Frigg, Roman and Hoefer, Carl
  • Fact and fiction in the neuropsychology of art. Frigg, Roman and Howard, Catherine
  • Scientific representation is representation-as. Frigg, Roman and Nguyen, James
  • Equilibrium in Boltzmannian statistical mechanics. Frigg, Roman and Werndl, Charlotte picture_as_pdf
  • Equilibrium in Gibbsian statistical mechanics. Frigg, Roman and Werndl, Charlotte
  • Regional implications. Lopez, Ana
  • Understanding flood hazard. Lopez, Ana
  • An introduction to regression and errors in variables from an algebraic viewpoint. Riccomagno, Eva and Wynn, Henry P.
  • Accountability and error in ensemble prediction of baroclinic flows. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply chaos? Smith, Leonard A.
  • Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Predictability and chaos. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Quantifying chaos through predicitve flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamic systems approach. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Visualizing predictability with chaotic ensembles. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Enlightenment in shadows. Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla
  • A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes. Smith, Leonard A. and Godfrey, K. and Fox, P. and Warwick, K.
  • Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy. Smith, Leonard A. and Petersen, Arthur
  • Weather and seasonal forecasting. Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S.
  • The role of insurance risk transfer in encouraging climate investment in developing countries. Surminski, Swenja
  • The dimensions of cosmic fractals. Thieberger, R. and Spiegel, E. A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • On generalized Langevin dynamics and the modelling of global mean temperature. Watkins, Nicholas W. and Chapman, Sandra C. and Chechkin, Aleksei and Ford, Ian and Klages, Rainer and Stainforth, David A. picture_as_pdf
    • Conference or Workshop Item
  • A copula based differential measure of local correlation. Bruynooghe, Daniel
  • Small-number statistics, common sense, and profit: challenges and non-challenges for hurricane forecasting. Jarman, Alex and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Predictability past predictability present. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation. Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla
  • Just do it: reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting. Smith, Leonard A. and McSharry, Patrick E.
  • The hawkmoth effect. Thompson, Erica and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Will it rain tomorrow? Improving probabilistic forecasts. Wheatcroft, Edward
    • Report
  • Models and representation: why structures are not enough. Frigg, Roman
  • Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science. Gibbs, Peter and Hanlon, Michael and Hardaker, Paul and Hawkins, Ed and MacDonald, Averil and Maskell, Kathy and Mayfield, Heather and Mclean, Angela and Morris, Elizabeth and Mylne, Ken and Naylor, Mark and Palmer, Tim and Rawlins, Michael and Royse, Katherine and Smith, Leonard and So, Emily and Spiegelhalter, David and Stainforth, David A. and Stewart, Ian and Tyler, Chris and de Vocht, Frank and Brown, Tracey and Innocent, Tabitha
  • (U,V) ordering and a duality theorem for risk aversion and Lorenz type orderings. Giovagnoli, Alessandra and Wynn, Henry P.
  • The Ocean Enterprise, a study of US business activitiy in ocean measurement, observation and forecasting. Gouldman, Carl and Rayner, Ralph and Bosley, Kate
  • Confidence bands for regression: the independence point method. Hayter, A.J. and Wynn, Henry P. and Liu, W.
  • From MOS to eMOS: generalising model output statistics for full ensemble forecasts. Kilminster, Devin and Clark, Liam and Roulston, Mark and Ziehmann, Christine and Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard
  • Particulate dispersal in a time dependent flow [in Dynamic differentiation, summer study program in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution]. Mellor, Florence K.
  • A forecast reliability index from ensembles: a comparison of methods. Roulston, Mark S and Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A.
  • End to end ensemble forecasting: towards evaluating the economic value of an ensemble prediction system. Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S and von Hardenberg, Jost
    • Other
  • The maintenance of uncertainty. Smith, Leonard A.
    • Online resource
  • Feeding frenzy is short of juice. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Letters to the editor: unproven theories have value. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Rough survey of how ticks all add up. Smith, Leonard A.
    • Working paper
  • Economic policy when models disagree. Barrieu, Pauline and Desgagne, Bernard Sinclair
  • Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread option pricing. Barrieu, Pauline and Fehr, Max
  • Blended automation:integrating algorithms on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Beunza, Daniel and Millo, Yuval picture_as_pdf
  • Laplace's demon and climate change. Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.