Items where Author is "Smith, Leonard A."

Number of items: 122.
Article
  • Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Oreskes, Naomi and Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Theiler, James and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood. McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Rowlands, Daniel J. and Frame, David J. and Ackerley, Duncan and Aina, Tolu and Booth, Ben B. B. and Christensen, Carl and Collins, Matthew and Faull, Nicholas and Forest, Chris E. and Grandey, Benjamin S. and Gryspeerdt, Edward and Highwood, Eleanor J. and Ingram, William J. and Knight, Sylvia and Lopez, Ana and Massey, Neil and McNamara, Frances and Meinshausen, Nicolai and Piani, Claudio and Rosier, Suzanne M. and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Smith, Leonard A. and Stone, Dáithí A. and Thurston, Milo and Yamazaki, Kuniko and Hiro Yamazaki, Y. and Allen, Myles R.
  • Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Comments on the paper of R Smith, estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with Weather Roulette. Hagedorn, Renate and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data. Golobic, I. and Pavlovic, E. and von Hardenberg, J. and Berry, M. and Nelson, R.A. and Kenning, D.B.R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method. McSharry, P.E. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L.
  • Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Stainforth, David A. and Allen, M. R. and Tredger, Edward and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states. Khare, Shree and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems. Machete, Reason L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Designing multi-model applications with surrogate forecast systems. Smith, Leonard A. and Du, Hailiang and Higgins, Sarah picture_as_pdf
  • Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series. Provenzale, A. and Smith, Leonard A. and Vio, R. and Murante, G.
  • Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeitsexperiment im Lorenz-Modell. Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C. and Fraedrich, K. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Escape from model-land. Thompson, Erica L. and Smith, Leonard A. picture_as_pdf
  • Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Roulston, Mark S. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models. Smith, Leonard A. and Cuellar, Milena C. and Du, Hailiang and Judd, Kevin
  • Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Smith, Leonard A. and Hansen, James A.
  • Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models. Roulston, Mark S and Ellepola, Jerome and von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A.
  • From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Geophysical flows as dynamical systems: the influence of Hide's experiments. Ghil, Michael and Read, Peter and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Getting weather back into the definition of climate. Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A.
  • Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative informations. Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje
  • How good is an ensemble at capturing truth?: using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje
  • Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Identification of nucleation site interactions. von Hardenberg, Jost and Kenning, David B. R. and Xing, Huijuan and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Improved analytic characterization of ultraviolet skylight. Green, A. E. S. and Cross, K. R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Indistinguishable states I: perfect model scenario. Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario. Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence. Smith, Leonard A. and Fournier, J. D. and Spiegel, E. A.
  • Lacunarity and period-doubling. Glendinning, Paul and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. McSharry, P. E. and He, T. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L.
  • Linear regime duration: is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? Gilmour, Isla and Smith, Leonard A. and Buizza, Roberto
  • Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Paparella, F. and Provenzale, A. and Smith, Leonard A. and Taricco, C. and Vio, R.
  • Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability. Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen
  • Model error in weather forecasting. Orrell, D. and Smith, Leonard A. and Barkmeijer, J. and Palmer, T. N.
  • Monte Carlo SSA: detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of colored noise. Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Multi-model cross-pollination in time. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • On the statistical formalism of uncertainty quantification. Berger, James O. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • On virtual observatories and modelled realities (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable). Beven, Keith and Buytaert, Wouter and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Parameter estimation through ignorance. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows. Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A.
  • Policy: clarify the limits of climate models. Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, Lionel
  • Probabilistic noise reduction. Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts. Smith, Leonard A. and Du, Hailiang and Suckling, Emma B. and Niehörster, Falk
  • Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part I: the perfect model scenario. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part II: the perfect model scenario. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Quantifying the predictability of a predictand: demonstrating the diverse roles of serial dependence in the estimation of forecast skill. Jarman, Alexander and Smith, Leonard A. picture_as_pdf
  • Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams. Kwasniok, Frank and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Rising above chaotic likelihoods. Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support. Lopez, Ana and Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper. Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions. McSharry, Patrick E. and Ellepola, Jerome H. and von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A. and Kenning, David B. R. and Judd, Kevin
  • Strange accumulators. Smith, Leonard A. and Spiegel, E. A.
  • Synchronized chaos in coupled double disk homopolar dynamos. Moroz, Irene M. and Smith, Leonard A. and Hide, Raymond
  • Temperature oscillations. Allen, Myles R. and Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Temperature time-series? Allen, Myles R. and Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension. Guerrero, A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation. Smith, Leonard A. and Suckling, Emma B. and Thompson, Erica L. and Maynard, Trevor and Du, Hailiang
  • Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Smith, Leonard A. and Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K.
  • Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Stainforth, David A. and Aina, T. and Christensen, C. and Collins, M. and Faull, N. and Frame, D. J. and Kettleborough, J. A. and Knight, S. and Martin, A. and Murphy, J. M. and Piani, C. and Sexton, D. and Smith, Leonard A. and Spicer, R. A. and Thorpe, A. J. and Allen, M. R.
  • Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Smith, Leonard A. and Stern, Nicholas
  • Uncertainty quantification. Berger, J. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk. Altalo, Mary G. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production. Roulston, M.S. and Kaplan, D.T. and Hardenberg, J. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram. Orrell, David and Smith, Leonard A.
  • What might we learn from climate forecasts? Smith, Leonard A.
  • An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A.
  • The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos. Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen
  • The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals. McSharry, P. E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models. Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • The geometry of model error. Judd, Kevin and Reynolds, Carolyn A. and Rosmond, Thomas E. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths. Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A. picture_as_pdf
  • The influence of graphical format on judgmental forecasting accuracy: lines versus points. Theocharis, Zoe and Smith, Leonard A. and Harvey, Nigel picture_as_pdf
  • A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence. Guerrero, Alexandra and Smith, Leonard A.
  • A method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. McSharry, Patrick E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A.
  • A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts. Weisheimer, Antje and Smith, Leonard A. and Judd, Kevin
  • A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - comments. Smith, Leonard A.
  • The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations. Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A.
    • Book
  • Chaos: a very short introduction. Smith, Leonard A.
    • Chapter
  • Accountability and error in ensemble prediction of baroclinic flows. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply chaos? Smith, Leonard A.
  • Enlightenment in shadows. Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla
  • Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Model error and ensemble forecasting: a cautionary tale. Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Predictability and chaos. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Predictability past predictability present. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill. Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Machete, Reason L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Quantifying chaos through predicitve flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamic systems approach. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy. Smith, Leonard A. and Petersen, Arthur
  • Visualizing predictability with chaotic ensembles. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Weather and seasonal forecasting. Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S.
  • The dimensions of cosmic fractals. Thieberger, R. and Spiegel, E. A. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes. Smith, Leonard A. and Godfrey, K. and Fox, P. and Warwick, K.
    • Conference or Workshop Item
  • Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation. Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla
  • Just do it: reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting. Smith, Leonard A. and McSharry, Patrick E.
  • Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. McSharry, P.E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A.
  • Predictability past predictability present. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Small-number statistics, common sense, and profit: challenges and non-challenges for hurricane forecasting. Jarman, Alex and Smith, Leonard A.
  • The hawkmoth effect. Thompson, Erica and Smith, Leonard A.
    • Report
  • End to end ensemble forecasting: towards evaluating the economic value of an ensemble prediction system. Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S and von Hardenberg, Jost
  • A forecast reliability index from ensembles: a comparison of methods. Roulston, Mark S and Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A.
    • Other
  • The maintenance of uncertainty. Smith, Leonard A.
    • Online resource
  • Feeding frenzy is short of juice. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Letters to the editor: unproven theories have value. Smith, Leonard A.
  • Rough survey of how ticks all add up. Smith, Leonard A.
    • Working paper
  • Laplace's demon and climate change. Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A.