Replication Data for: Carbon emissions reductions from Indonesia's Moratorium on forest concessions are cost-effective yet contribute little to Paris pledges

International initiatives for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) could make critical, cost-effective contributions to tropical countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. Norway, a key donor of such initiatives, had a REDD+ partnership with Indonesia, offering results-based payments in exchange for emissions reductions calculated against a historical baseline. Central to this partnership was an area-based Moratorium on new oil palm, timber and logging concessions in primary and peatland forests. We evaluate the effectiveness of the Moratorium between 2011 and 2018 by applying a matched triple difference strategy to a unique panel dataset. Treated dryland forest inside Moratorium areas retained at most, an average of 0.65% higher forest cover compared to untreated dryland forest outside the Moratorium. By contrast, carbon-rich peatland forest was unaffected by the Moratorium. Cumulative avoided dryland deforestation from 2011 until 2018 translates into 67.8-86.9 million tons of emissions reductions, implying an effective carbon price below Norway’s US$5 per ton price. Based on Norway’s price, our estimated cumulative emissions reductions are equivalent to a payment of US$339-434.5 million. Annually, our estimates suggest a 3-4 percent contribution to Indonesia’s NDC commitment of a 29% emissions reduction by 2030. Despite the Indonesia-Norway partnership ending in 2021, reducing emissions from deforestation remains critical for meeting this commitment. Future area-based REDD+ initiatives could build on the Moratorium’s outcomes by reforming its incentives and institutional arrangements, particularly in peatland forest areas.